The eVTOL market is predicted to steadily grow into a massive commercial industry within the next 25 years. Currently, only a few companies have floated on the stock market, but it’s still possible to make predictions about the industry’s value in the future.
Let’s take a look at the eVTOL market forecast and what this could mean in the coming decades.
What is the Value of the eVTOL Market?
Specific values for the eVTOL market differ depending on which study you use. Fortune Business Insights stated that it was worth 1.11 billion USD in 2020 and this rose to 5.41 billion in 2021. The same study predicts it’ll grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 23.13% until 20298.
But Morgan Stanley – a staple in the investment world – predicts it could be worth 1 trillion USD by 2040. The company originally predicted this figure would be 1.5 trillion, but it revised its estimate based on several factors. The most notable is a lack of regulation, combined with slow growth during the pandemic.
Finally, Research Dive predicts the eVTOL market will be worth 2.5 billion USD by 2033, which is significantly above the Business Insights prediction. The bottom line is that the eVTOL market could potentially be worth a lot of money, but how much depends on who you ask.
Factors Influencing the eVTOL Market Forecast
In some respects, the eVTOL market is quite volatile, particularly because so few companies have floated on the stock market. Here are what we consider to be the main factors influencing the eVTOL market forecast stats above.
Let’s address the most important aspect first: viability. As it stands, the urban air mobility market is entirely theoretical. While various companies are testing their prototypes, none expect to launch before 2024. Therefore, trying to evaluate a market that technically doesn’t exist yet is pretty difficult.
But when Joby Aviation went public in 2021, it generated $1.6 billion in capital during its IPO. This is a pretty sizeable investment in something that isn’t commercially available.
So, what does this mean? In theory, it means there is public confidence in the eVTOL market, despite it not technically existing yet. This is one explanation for why the eVTOL market forecast is so high – there’s a lot of buzz around the product.
You can check out this video for a deeper analysis on Joby’s IPO.
There are different ways of evaluating a market’s worth, which we don’t need to get into here. But one thing worth addressing is that the urban air mobility industry isn’t just about electric helicopters.
It also includes the infrastructure necessary to make eVTOLs function, both in urban and rural environments. This includes vertiports, charging stations, and the required electricity supply.
All this feeds into the market’s value through R&D, production, and employment. The figures are given above factor this in but to different extents.
For example, the Research Dive report looks at the value of different sectors of the eVTOL industry, predicting that vector technology will hold the most value. Most of this comes from R&D but also the industries that’ll adopt the technology.
For eVTOLs to legally fly, they need regulation. In the US, this is done by the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). Importantly, eVTOLs are a very difficult thing to regulate because they’re not like anything that’s come before them.
This could impact the eVTOL market forecast because if the FAA decides to not regulate them, or puts restrictions in place, it could crash the market value. After all, who would want to invest in a product that either needs to change significantly or can’t be launched at all?
Finally, there’s interest in the product. We’ve addressed this a bit above when discussing viability, but it deserves its own attention. What do we mean by interest?
Simply put, it considers who is interested in using the technology, and to what extent. Luckily, we have some idea of what this looks like:
- Singapore is very interested in eVTOL technology, having signed multiple deals with different companies.
- Volocopter has a contract to supply transport at the 2024 Paris Olympics, which will be a high-profile public launch.
- The US military signed a $75 million contract with Joby Aviation to research the potential for eVTOLs as military transportation.
The military contract is perhaps the best example of how interest affects market value. While it’s not a public entity in the same way as the Olympics (civilians won’t see eVTOLs in action in the military), it’s a pretty sure-fire confirmation that eVTOLs have potential.
After all, the US military is one of the biggest spending powerhouses in the world. Sure, it’s invested in some pretty zany technology in the past, but its interest in the eVTOL market will push it closer to viability more quickly than public investment alone.
Military involvement will help with numerous factors, particularly regulation. In theory, its tests will help the FAA decide how to manage the issue of eVTOLs in the sky.
Looking Ahead at the eVTOL Market
We obviously can’t answer that for you, and any stock investment is a risk. Let’s use Joby as an example of why it’s a risky move. In the first 24 hours of its IPO, Joby stock went up nearly 10%. However, in the last year, it dropped by around 46%.
Plus, the important thing to remember is that the eVTOL market forecast stats given above are just that: forecasts. Look at the fact that Morgan Stanley revised its original figure by 33%.
Of course, this isn’t to say the market is worthless. It’s more an implication that, until the industry actually takes off, we have no real indication of what it’ll look like in the future.
Final Thoughts on the eVTOL Market
The eVTOL market is a fascinating example of potential. Its value is based on the assumption that people will want to use electric helicopters, and we won’t know this until we actually get to try them. Either way, it’ll be interesting to see how it develops in the next decade.